About Tuffy's Storm Prediction System
What Is This?
A proprietary severe weather intelligence engine generating a Severe Weather Index (0-100) and occurrence likelihood for +3, +6, +9, +12, and +24 hour windows.
Data Sources
All data from the National Weather Service (NWS) API: hourly forecast and active alerts.
6-Component Algorithm
Wind (0-20), Gusts (0-18), Precip (0-14), Instability (0-16), Forecast Text (0-22), Alerts (0-10).
Threat Levels
0-9 NONE
10-24 LOW
25-49 GUARDED
50-74 ELEVATED
75-89 HIGH
90-100 EXTREME
Reading the 7-Day Forecast
Temperature Range Bar
Each bar spans Low to High, positioned relative to the full week.
Orange 80F+
Yellow 60-79F
Blue Below 60F
Justin Gainey's Forecast %
HIT — Hi & Lo both within 1° of actual
CLOSE — Average error 2–4°
MISS — Average error 5°+
Lead-Time Cards
Each card shows NWS accuracy for forecasts made N days before the target date. 1-Day Out = next-day forecast; 5-Day Out = five days ahead. Accuracy naturally decreases with lead time.
Methodology
At 8 PM each evening, forecasts are recorded for all 5 upcoming days from NWS Raleigh. Actuals are the observed high & low from NWS KRDU station data.
Raleigh Wx Almanac
Year-to-date climate stats vs 30-year normals (1991-2020). Data from Open-Meteo Archive (ERA5). Reference: RDU Airport.
Orange Above normal
Blue Below normal
Green Near normal
--:--:--
Loading...
Current Conditions - Red Wolf Farm - S. Wake County, NC - KNCRALEI761
Raleigh Skyline
RED WOLF FARM — S. WAKE COUNTY, NC — KNCRALEI761
--° F
Loading...
Feels like --F
Dew Point --F
Visibility ~10 mi
Fetching...
Humidity
--%
Wind
--
--
Gusts
--
mph
Pressure
--
inHg
Precip
--
in today
UV Index
--
--
Today High
--F
observed
Tonight's Forecasted Low
--F
forecast
12-Hour Forecast
Loading...
7-Day Extended Forecast
?

Initializing Storm Prediction System...

Satellite Imagery
Satellite · Live · Carolinas Region
NWS KRAX Radar
Radar - Centered on Raleigh-Durham
Sugar Mountain Base Cam
SUGAR MTN - 4,000 ft
Sugar Mountain Resort - Banner Elk, NC
Cape Hatteras Live Cam
CAPE HATTERAS - OBX
Surfchex - Hatteras, NC
Raleigh Wx Almanac - RDU Airport - Historical Climate Data
?
Loading climate data...
Loading PWS data...
Loading launches...
Loading ISS passes...